Overview
- Citing research published Aug. 27, Grayscale reported Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold climbed above 50% while its 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell to roughly 33%.
- The shift followed U.S. gross federal debt crossing $40 trillion in mid‑August and came as Treasury buyback changes and large ETF inflows coincided with sharp moves in bonds, the dollar, gold and Bitcoin.
- Analysts say the pattern fits a renewed “debasement trade” thesis in which investors seek assets with fixed supply, pointing to Bitcoin’s 21 million coin cap as a reason some buyers treat it like a scarce monetary asset.
- Experts caution the finding is provisional because 90-day rolling correlations measure short-term co‑movement not causation and can reverse quickly, and Bitcoin remains much more volatile than gold.
- If the gold link endures during future stock or bond stress it would strengthen the case for a lasting regime shift, but the next evidence will come from how Bitcoin behaves during wider market turmoil and sustained flows.