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Bitcoin’s Quantum Risk Reassessed as Grayscale Downplays 2026 Market Impact

Grayscale’s new outlook characterizes the threat as long term rather than a 2026 price catalyst.

Overview

  • Grayscale’s 2026 Digital Asset Outlook says quantum computing is unlikely to affect crypto prices next year, with cryptographically relevant machines viewed as unlikely before 2030.
  • Willy Woo argues the network would endure a hypothetical quantum hack and predicts early holders would buy a flash crash rather than abandon Bitcoin.
  • Roughly 4 million BTC have exposed public keys in older formats or reused addresses, a cohort that analysts say would face higher risk if a practical Shor-capable system emerged.
  • Estimates cited in the coverage place Satoshi Nakamoto’s holdings near 1.096 million BTC, and some reports include those coins among exposed public-key sets.
  • Engineers and researchers note that many wallets have never revealed public keys, timelines likely stretch a decade or more, and Bitcoin can migrate to post-quantum signatures if needed.