Overview
- Bitcoin trades around $71,000–$72,000 after falling more than 40% from a recent high near $126,000.
- On Polymarket, a “yes” contract for $150,000 by March costs about $0.016 and “no” trades near $0.987, implying about 1% odds.
- In late October, prediction markets put the chance of $150,000 by March 2026 near 60%, highlighting a sharp sentiment reversal.
- As of March 5, markets also assigned roughly a 5% probability to Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by the end of June.
- Analysts note Bitcoin’s historical four-year boom-bust cadence with steep drawdowns and say derivatives positioning may offer a different signal than prediction markets.