Overview
- After the U.S. Treasury said on Aug. 19 it would more than double long‑dated debt buybacks to at least $4 billion, bitcoin rallied about 22.4% in the following week while gold rose roughly 5% and stocks weakened.
- Bitwise and Bloomberg data show the 90‑day rolling correlation between bitcoin and gold has climbed to roughly +0.50–0.55, the strongest reading since 2020.
- Bitcoin’s correlation with major equities has fallen to about 0.30–0.33, and the volatility gap has collapsed with bitcoin’s 90‑day volatility near 36% versus gold’s about 25%, making bitcoin only about 1.4 times as volatile as gold.
- Crypto‑specific factors have helped bitcoin hold up during recent stress: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have taken in over $3 billion in the past 30 days and lower leverage plus steady ETF demand have reduced liquidation risk.
- Key watchers say the move is significant but provisional: persistence will depend on future Treasury and Fed actions, dollar and real‑yield paths, and whether ETF flows and market leverage keep supporting demand for bitcoin as a macro hedge.