Overview
- Bitcoin jumped to roughly $79,400 late Sunday into Monday after reports that Iran, via Pakistani mediators, proposed a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, then eased back toward $77,700 as sellers returned.
- Oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel, with Brent briefly near $108.5, as talks faltered and tanker traffic through the key Hormuz chokepoint stayed constrained.
- President Trump canceled a planned envoy trip to Pakistan and prepared a national security meeting on Iran, keeping prospects for near-term negotiations uncertain.
- Prediction markets on Polymarket show near-zero odds that Bitcoin falls to $60,000 by April 30, yet real-dollar liquidity is thin and a few hundred dollars can swing quoted probabilities by five points.
- Markets now eye Federal Reserve, ECB and BoJ decisions and major tech earnings for the next catalyst, with Bitcoin repeatedly stalling near the $79,000–$80,000 resistance even after a roughly 16% April gain and reported large institutional buys.