Overview
- Markets assign a 96%–98% chance of a 25 bps cut at the Oct. 29 FOMC meeting, which would set the policy rate near 3.75%–4.00%, according to CME FedWatch.
- Bitcoin traded between roughly $112,000 and $116,200 today and hovered around the mid‑$114,000s as attention turns to the Fed decision and the Trump–Xi summit at APEC with a data‑light backdrop from the U.S. shutdown.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged their third straight day of inflows with $149.3 million on Oct. 27, and weekly totals reached about $445 million, signaling resilient institutional demand.
- Derivatives positioning has grown more crowded, with aggregated BTC open interest near $37.6 billion and roughly $300 million in 24‑hour crypto liquidations highlighting event‑driven volatility risk.
- On‑chain metrics show stablecoin buying power near cycle highs, while institutional activity such as Ledn’s rise in BTC‑backed lending and American Bitcoin’s 1,414‑BTC purchase adds to the structural bid.