Overview
- Friday’s quarterly quadruple witching will see four equity and index derivative types expire together, though March 2026 totals have not been released.
- Bitcoin volatility gauges such as Volmex’s BVIV have been rising as analysts warn of potential cross-asset spillovers from the expiry.
- In 2025, bitcoin’s moves on witching days were typically muted, followed by weakness over the ensuing days to weeks.
- Recent flows point to derivatives-driven pressure, with about $506.75 million in perpetual futures selling versus roughly $40 million in spot and a negative Coinbase premium.
- Another potential catalyst arrives March 27, when around $13.5 billion in crypto options expire on Deribit, where positioning favors volatility strategies.