Overview
- Bitcoin dropped about 2% late Saturday after Vice President J.D. Vance said U.S.–Iran talks in Pakistan ended without a ceasefire, and it traded near $71,000 as selling spread to major altcoins.
- President Donald Trump then said the U.S. would move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, and prices fell further as traders weighed the risk of wider energy disruptions and a deeper market pullback.
- Flows stayed supportive even as prices cooled, with Strategy disclosing $330 million in bitcoin purchases last week and U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs taking in $787 million over the week, while the Coinbase premium pointed to stronger U.S. buying.
- Derivatives data showed fragility under the surface, with a jump in outstanding futures contracts on Binance, Bybit, and OKX but little growth in aggressive buy orders, a mix that can unwind fast if spot demand fades.
- Analysts split on the path ahead, with some mapping downside toward $58,000–$68,000 or even ~$41,400 based on past-cycle patterns and others eyeing a rebound toward ~$88,000 if inflows persist, as Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer flagged $65,000 as potential base support.