Overview
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $221.7 million on July 2, ending a 10-day outflow run that had drained roughly $2.7 billion and marked June as the worst month for the funds.
- Weaker-than-expected U.S. payrolls helped shift rate expectations and sparked a rally that pushed Bitcoin briefly above $62,000 and triggered more than $100 million in short liquidations.
- On-chain loss metrics have plunged to multi-year extremes, with CryptoQuant reporting the realized profit-and-loss ratio at a 43-month low, a reading that has historically appeared near cycle bottoms.
- Structural supply risks remain because several miners have increased BTC sales to cover costs and Strategy disclosed a monetization program that could allow sales of up to about $1.25 billion of Bitcoin.
- Market participants say a durable turn will need sustained ETF inflows, signs that on-chain stress metrics stabilize, and upcoming U.S. inflation data to confirm whether the early-July bounce is a lasting bottom or a short relief rally.