Overview
- Bitcoin finished the week on Sunday above its 50‑week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, a technical break traders say could signal the end of the bear phase.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs produced large, concentrated swings that helped drive the move, with roughly $746 million in redemptions across Sept. 15–16 and about $433 million of inflows on Sept. 18 led by Fidelity and BlackRock.
- The price sits in the low $81,000s and market participants are watching whether BTC can clear the $82,000–$83,000 zone, which many traders say would more clearly confirm a durable cycle bottom.
- Macro policy is the main risk to the rally after the Federal Reserve raised rates on Sept. 16 by 25 basis points, so upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed speeches will be key tests for whether buyers keep adding exposure.
- Market structure has amplified moves through short covering and derivatives positioning while regional demand differences, such as a weakening Korean premium, show the recovery is uneven and still depends on continued institutional buying.