Overview
- Bitcoin is holding around $78,000 to $80,000 after a recent failed push past $82,000.
- On-chain analysts highlight a dense supply band at $84,000 to $88,000, where many recent buyers sit near breakeven and short‑term holders carry an average cost near $87,000 to $88,000.
- Exchange metrics point to low sell supply and weak demand: Binance Inflow Coin Days Destroyed is down 99.5% since April, the Coinbase Premium is mostly negative, and the NVT ratio is rising, which means price is outpacing transaction activity.
- These illiquid conditions can compress volatility, so a firm break above $82,000 and then $88,000 would help confirm the next leg higher.
- A rejection near that band could pull price toward support around $70,000, and a separate long‑term Power Law model outlines a theoretical worst‑case floor near $42,800 rather than a forecast.