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Bitcoin Passes 20 Million Mined, Entering a Scarcity-Driven Phase

Halving-driven issuance declines leave fewer than 1 million BTC to be created over the coming century.

Overview

  • Real-time data from CloverPool shows total mined supply has topped 20 million BTC, about 95% of the 21 million cap.
  • Analysts estimate 2.3–3.7 million BTC are likely lost, putting the effective circulating supply closer to 15.8–17.5 million coins.
  • Post-2024 halving output averages roughly 450 BTC per day (about 13,500 per month), extending the final issuance trickle toward 2140.
  • Long-term holders and spot ETFs are absorbing coins faster than miners create them, with exchange balances near 2.4 million BTC and ETFs holding roughly $86 billion (about 6.3% of supply).
  • With block rewards now 3.125 BTC, miner economics are expected to lean more on transaction fees, while Bitcoin’s price action remains sensitive to macro conditions.