Overview
- Bitcoin slipped back under $77,000 on Tuesday after another failed push near $79,000, with rising oil prices and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty curbing risk-taking and keeping rallies capped below $80,000.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—stock-market funds that hold actual coins—now own more than 1.3 million BTC and over $102 billion, with about 18,991 BTC bought over five days to outpace new supply.
- Strategy, Michael Saylor’s company, holds roughly 815,061 BTC after adding 34,164 BTC in mid-April and 3,273 BTC more last week, a total that now exceeds any single U.S. ETF’s disclosed stash.
- Derivatives signals show fragile momentum, with funding rates below zero and Bybit reporting $593 million in short positions liquidated as price swung between $74,000 and $78,000, a pattern that can fuel sharp squeezes and quick reversals.
- Prediction markets price only about a 2–3% chance of a new high by June and roughly 5% odds of $200,000 by year-end, underscoring cautious expectations unless inflation pressures ease or fresh catalysts emerge.