Overview
- Bitcoin traded around $70,000–$71,000 on Thursday and has outpaced the S&P 500 and gold since Feb. 28 despite escalating Iran-related conflict and oil volatility.
- Fresh strikes on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent back above $100 and rattled risk assets, even after the IEA proposed a record reserve release.
- Derivatives data point to caution, with crypto futures open interest rising to about $102 billion as funding rates stay flat-to-negative and put protection remains in demand.
- Sentiment gauges remain depressed, with the crypto fear and greed index in extreme fear and on‑chain data showing bitcoin’s supply in loss nearing the 40%–45% zone.
- Institutional activity has improved, including consistent March inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT, though analysts note higher energy prices and steady Fed policy could keep price action range‑bound.