Overview
- Bitcoin is trading around $67,000–$68,000, roughly 46% below the October 2025 peak, with several analysts expecting a prolonged consolidation in roughly the $60,000–$75,000 range.
- Derivatives risk has cooled as Binance’s Estimated Leverage Ratio fell about 28%, while at‑the‑money implied volatility dropped and options flows show persistent demand for puts.
- Whale activity points to distribution pressure, with a $208 million spike in realized profits and the exchange whale ratio rising to 0.64, the highest since 2015.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net outflows—over $8.6 billion since October 2025—while BlackRock’s IBIT trades near its lows, signaling softer institutional spot demand.
- Macro uncertainty has increased after the Supreme Court invalidated earlier tariffs and President Trump issued a new 10% global tariff effective February 24, adding a potential headwind for risk assets.