Overview
- Exchange deposits have fallen from roughly 60,000 BTC on February 6 to about 23,000 BTC daily, yet CryptoQuant’s Exchange Whale Ratio hit 0.64, signaling concentrated selling by large holders.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded more than $8–8.6 billion in outflows since October 2025, and BlackRock’s IBIT remains in a downtrend below its 50- and 200-day moving averages.
- Options data show fading panic with at-the-money implied volatility near 48%, but put demand and elevated skew persist, and dealers are broadly short gamma between roughly $58,000 and $70,000.
- Bitcoin trades around $67,000–$68,000 after a drawdown of about 46% from its October 2025 peak, with sentiment in extreme fear and price holding a key support zone near $65,000.
- On-chain and cohort metrics point to slowing distribution from 1–2 year holders, realized losses exceeding $22 billion, and a 14% hash rate decline over 90 days, as analysts flag macro risks including weakening equity momentum and a neutral Fed stance.