Overview
- Bitcoin fell to about $65,500 on Friday after failing to clear $72,000 earlier in the week, leaving it near 53% below its October 2025 peak.
- Options pricing on Deribit now implies roughly a 50% chance the price stays under $66,000 through late April, with a sharp rise in demand for puts as oil hits $100 and bond yields climb.
- Chart analysts report a bear flag breakdown that sets $49,000 as the first target, with a larger measured move toward about $38,500 if selling accelerates.
- On‑chain cost maps show thick resistance above current levels, including a short‑term holder realized price near $86,900 and a new‑whale cost basis around $82,800, while a support cluster sits near $58,900 to $55,900 and a realized‑price floor near $54,300.
- Flows look split as short‑term holders sent about 21,700 BTC to exchanges in loss, even as analytics flagged off‑exchange stablecoin movements tied to institutional buying and noted a drop in miner selling.