Overview
- Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on Friday after U.S. airstrikes on Iran and President Trump’s declassified intelligence alleging Chinese election interference pushed investors out of risk assets.
- Oil climbed toward $79–$80 per barrel, lifting the dollar and raising concerns that higher energy costs will push up inflation and complicate the Fed’s rate path.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew roughly $510 million across three recent sessions, and on‑chain data from Nansen showed net outflows during the strike hour reverse to net inflows within the same session, indicating buyers returned quickly.
- The cryptocurrency’s strong correlation with U.S. equities has removed much of its safe‑haven appeal this year, leaving it to track stock declines and dollar strength rather than acting as a hedge.
- Market direction now hinges on whether institutional ETF flows continue and on upcoming Fed guidance at the July 28–29 meeting, with sustained buying needed to turn short declines into a durable rally.