Overview
- Deribit will settle about $14.16 billion in Bitcoin options Friday, equal to roughly 40% of its BTC open interest.
- The exchange’s data puts the “max pain” level at $75,000, a point where many contracts expire worthless and hedging can nudge spot toward that price.
- Deribit’s Jean-David Péquignot said implied volatility has compressed in recent sessions, which points to a controlled expiry as traders scale back risk.
- A diplomatic pause after President Donald Trump delayed strikes on Iranian power plants is set to end near the settlement, raising the chance of post-expiry swings into the weekend.
- Analysts note that large expiries have preceded sharp weekend moves, citing September 2025’s liquidation spike, and they are watching ETF inflows and on-chain buying for signs of fresh demand.