Overview
- Bitcoin sits near $74,000 after repeated knocks at $76,000, with one analyst eyeing a last push to $77,000–$78,000 on a weekly MACD cross, a momentum gauge.
- That same outlook warns of fresh lows in the second quarter, with a potential policy shift later in the year cited as the setup for a rebound.
- Ivan on Tech warns that weakness could pull the price toward $50,000, while Marmot maps a break below $45,000 with a possible floor under $43,700.
- Ali Martinez flags $49,387 as the key line to defend based on the long‑term holder realized price, the average cost paid by wallets that hold for months.
- Since the October 2025 peak above $126,000, Bitcoin is down more than 40% in a market reshaped by spot ETFs and recent geopolitical shocks.