Overview
- The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released Friday found likely‑voter support for Proposition 40 at 48% with 41% opposed and 11% undecided, leaving the initiative short of a clear majority.
- Prop 40 would impose a one‑time 5% levy on California residents with more than $1 billion in worldwide net worth to fund healthcare programs and related services, with proponents estimating large near‑term receipts.
- Opposition is well‑organized: authors of two competing measures (Propositions 41 and 42) designed to supersede or block the wealth tax are on the ballot and many voters remain unaware of those rival measures.
- Prominent investors including Mark Cuban have publicly warned they would steer investments or require companies leave California if the tax passes, raising questions about long‑term revenue and potential relocations.
- The campaign’s outcome will hinge on turnout among younger and progressive voters, ongoing fundraising and ad battles, and looming legal fights over valuation, retroactivity and collection that could determine whether the tax ever takes effect.