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Bigger Refunds, Slower Payouts: What’s Shaping the 2026 Tax Season

Verification holds for EITC and ACTC filers are pushing some refunds into March.

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Washington Dc: Internal Revenue Service federal building Washington DC USA. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is the revenue service of the United States federal government. The government agency is a bureau of the Department of the Treasury. The IRS is responsible for collecting taxes and administering the Internal Revenue Code, the federal statutory tax law of the U.S.A
Internal Revenue Service sign at the IRS Building in Washington, DC.

Overview

  • Treasury and analysts expect average refunds to be about $1,000 higher due to 2025 law changes, including a higher $2,200 child tax credit, a $40,000 SALT cap, and new deductions for seniors, tips, overtime and certain auto-loan interest.
  • Refunds on returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit will not be released before at least March 2, with the entire refund held for verification and projected deposit dates appearing in Where’s My Refund by Feb. 21.
  • The IRS is steering payments to direct deposit and may freeze refunds until correct bank details are provided; paper checks and mailed returns take longer to process.
  • Processing risks are elevated as IRS staffing has dropped by roughly a quarter and backlogs persist, with around 590,000 amended returns pending and complex filings more likely to face delays.
  • IRS Criminal Investigation reports $4.5 billion in tax fraud identified in fiscal 2025 and urges taxpayers to use vetted preparers, beware of scams and protect personal information.