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BHP Lifts Jansen Potash Budget to $8.4 Billion as China Talks Dent Iron Ore Prices

Talks with China’s state buyer are trimming realised iron ore prices, unsettling investors.

Overview

  • BHP raised the Jansen Stage 1 cost to US$8.4 billion, citing higher construction hours and previously omitted material quantities, with the project about 75% complete and first production still targeted for mid‑2027.
  • The miner reported record output across key iron ore and copper operations and increased guidance for Group copper, Escondida and Antamina, while maintaining full‑year iron ore guidance of 284–296 million tonnes.
  • Western Australia Iron Ore delivered a record half‑year production of 147 million tonnes, positioning operations ahead of the typically wet third quarter.
  • BHP acknowledged that ongoing 2026 contract negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group have reduced realised prices for some Pilbara shipments, with its December‑quarter average at US$84 per tonne and below prevailing benchmarks.
  • Shares fell about 2% as the Jansen cost revision and pricing pressure overshadowed operational strength, with analysts suggesting the discounts are likely temporary.