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Berkeley IGS Poll Shows Two Republicans Now Leading California Governor Primary

A fragmented Democratic field under California’s top-two system creates a plausible path for a Republican-on-Republican November matchup.

Overview

  • UC Berkeley’s IGS/Los Angeles Times poll conducted March 9–14 finds Steve Hilton at 17% and Chad Bianco at 16%, putting two Republicans narrowly ahead heading into the June 2 primary.
  • Democrats Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter register 13% each, Tom Steyer is at 10%, and no other Democrat tops 5%, with roughly 16% of likely voters still undecided.
  • California’s top-two primary advances the highest two vote-getters regardless of party, raising a real—though not certain—lockout risk for Democrats if their vote remains split.
  • California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks has urged low-polling candidates to reassess viability before an April 15 marker to help consolidate support.
  • Affordability ranks as voters’ top priority and overall enthusiasm remains low, and while the poll of 5,019 registered voters (±2.5 points) highlights short-term primary risks, Democrats’ statewide dominance since 2006 makes a GOP governorship still unlikely.