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2h ago

Below‑Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast as June 1 Season Opens

Developing El Niño, Saharan dust, and cooler Main Development Region waters should curb overall basin activity; warm near‑shore pockets still raise the risk of rapid intensification.

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The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite acquired this image of Idalia around 11:35 a.m. Eastern Time on Aug. 29. At this time, Idalia was moving north, and the National Hurricane Center reported wind speeds of about 85 miles (135 kilometers) per hour. Credits: NASA Earth Observatory
Forecasters are monitoring two separate areas of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific hurricane basin, as of May 31, 2026.
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Overview

  • The Atlantic season officially began Monday and NOAA projects 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes and 1–3 major hurricanes with about a 55% chance of below‑normal activity.
  • Forecasters point to a developing El Niño as a key reason for the quieter outlook because stronger upper‑level winds, or wind shear, tend to tear apart storms before they can organize.
  • Large plumes of Saharan dust and cooler sea surface temperatures across parts of the Main Development Region are expected to further suppress early‑season development in the Atlantic.
  • The National Hurricane Center is tracking active disturbances in the Eastern Pacific, including one system with a high short‑term development probability, and officials warn that Pacific activity can increase while the Atlantic is quieter.
  • Emergency managers and forecasters urge coastal residents to prepare now by reviewing evacuation plans, checking flood and wind coverage, and stocking supplies because a single storm near warm Gulf or Caribbean waters can still cause severe local damage.