Overview
- An Emerson College Poll conducted May 27–28 found Xavier Becerra at 28% among likely voters, a jump of about nine points since mid‑May that puts him clearly ahead of the field.
- Tom Steyer (22%) and Steve Hilton (21%) are effectively tied inside Emerson’s ±3 point margin of error, leaving the contest for the second top‑two slot unresolved.
- California’s nonpartisan top‑two system advances the two highest vote‑getters to November regardless of party, raising the real possibility of an intra‑party runoff or a GOP‑Democrat pairing.
- Turnout and late mail‑ballot returns are the decisive variables because early returns are low and uneven across parties, so outstanding ballots could shift who finishes second.
- The candidates offer contrasting paths: Becerra highlights decades in public office, Steyer stresses affordability and a progressive tax agenda, and Hilton leans on conservative consolidation aided by President Trump’s endorsement.