Overview
- An Emerson College poll conducted May 27–28 shows former U.S. health secretary Xavier Becerra at about 28% support, marking a sharp rise for a candidate who polled in single digits earlier this year.
- Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton are essentially tied for the crucial second spot across recent surveys, with different reputable polls naming each as second and margins within poll error limits.
- Political Data Inc. and state data report relatively low early returns—roughly 15% of ballots returned statewide and more than 3.3 million ballots cast—while Republicans have returned ballots at higher rates than Democrats so far.
- Campaign forces shaping the finish include President Trump’s endorsement of Hilton, Steyer’s nearly $200 million of personal spending, heavy outside corporate spending that has targeted rivals, and April’s withdrawal of Eric Swalwell which reshuffled Democratic support.
- Which two advance will shape November’s choices and state policy: a Republican in the runoff could change the governing agenda, while two Democrats on the ballot would lock the general election contest into an intra‑party fight over housing, cost of living and wildfire and economic policy.