Overview
- A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted Aug. 3–9 and reported Aug. 13 finds likely voters favor Xavier Becerra 55% to Steve Hilton’s 37%, with 7% undecided.
- Voter preferences break strongly along party lines, with 88% of Democrats backing Becerra and 91% of Republicans backing Hilton, driving much of the margin between them.
- At a Politico summit this week, Becerra rolled out a 'power hour' plan for free off-peak electricity and pitched making California a backstop to keep people insured after federal Medicaid cuts, while Hilton promoted large tax cuts, $3 gas and big utility bill reductions.
- Hilton faces weak personal ratings with independents viewing him unfavorably, and Becerra holds a sizable fundraising edge bolstered by independent groups that have spent millions for his campaign.
- California’s large Democratic registration advantage and regional splits — with Becerra strong in coastal population centers and Hilton ahead in some inland areas — mean the race will hinge on whether Hilton can win over independents and shrink Becerra’s turnout lead.