Overview
- Polls conducted May 27–28 show Democrat Xavier Becerra ahead, with the Emerson survey placing him near 28% and putting Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton almost tied for the second spot.
- A UC Berkeley IGS survey and a PPIC poll from late May similarly show Becerra leading while the contest for the runner‑up remains a narrow, multi‑poll toss‑up.
- Ballot‑return tracking from Political Data Inc. finds fewer returned ballots from Democrats so far and a larger share from Republicans than in 2022, a dynamic that could shift results when late votes are counted.
- President Trump's endorsement boosted Hilton among GOP voters in IGS polling, while Eric Swalwell's April exit helped consolidate Democratic support behind candidates such as Becerra.
- Candidates are making final statewide pushes and Tom Steyer's campaign has spent heavily from personal funds, leaving turnout and late returns as the decisive factors that will shape who faces off in November.