Overview
- The Public Policy Institute of California survey conducted May 14–18 shows Xavier Becerra at 23% and Steve Hilton at 20% among likely primary voters, making a Democrat-versus-Republican November runoff more probable.
- Tom Steyer has spent roughly $195 million on advertising but remains stuck in the mid-teens in polls, illustrating limited translation of massive self-funding into clear gains.
- Voter indecision and slow mail-ballot returns — reported at about 8–10% in late May — mean the final results could shift based on last-minute turnout and ballots postmarked by June 2.
- Campaign shocks reshaped the race: Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal boosted support for Becerra and President Donald Trump’s endorsement helped consolidate Republican backing for Hilton.
- Governor Gavin Newsom signed an immediate law banning seizure or surrender of ballots after Riverside County’s earlier seizure, a procedural move meant to protect vote custody as the primary approaches.