Overview
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced methodological fixes that it will publish on September 30, 2026, and apply retroactively to PCE data back to 2021.
- The updates target three subcategories: portfolio management and investment advice services, computer software and accessories, and legal services.
- Major banks estimate the revisions will shave roughly 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off core PCE, so May’s 3.4 percent core reading would fall to about 3.2–3.3 percent.
- Technically defensible problems underlie the change: for example, portfolio management fees were being recorded in ways that let stock-market gains show up as higher prices for asset‑management services rather than larger quantities of services.
- The timing has raised transparency and credibility questions as traders and policymakers price a small rise in the odds of Fed rate cuts while critics call for clearer documentation of the revisions and their methods.