Overview
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis, in Thursday's final fourth‑quarter estimate, cut annualized growth to 0.5% from a prior 0.7% after an initial 1.4% reading.
- Federal outlays fell at a 16.6% annual rate during the shutdown, which the BEA says subtracted about 1.16 percentage points from the quarter’s growth.
- Revisions lowered business investment as updated Census data showed weaker inventory buildup and softer spending on intellectual property, while consumer spending was trimmed to a 1.9% pace.
- Corporate profits from current production jumped by $246.9 billion in the quarter, even as the average of GDP and gross domestic income pointed to a slower 1.5% growth pace.
- Full‑year 2025 growth landed at 2.1%, and higher energy prices tied to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran now cloud the outlook before the first read on Q1 2026 arrives on April 30.