Overview
- The second estimate reduced fourth‑quarter growth from 1.4% after weaker readings on consumer spending, exports, government outlays and investment.
- Federal spending and investment fell at a 16.7% annualized pace, subtracting about 1.16 percentage points from overall GDP growth.
- Underlying private demand cooled, with final sales to private domestic purchasers up 1.9% and household spending rising 2.0% in the quarter.
- Exports declined at a 3.3% annual rate and business investment was softer than first reported, further weighing on late‑2025 activity.
- Full‑year 2025 growth is now 2.1%, while oil near $100 and firm core PCE readings have lowered expectations for near‑term Fed cuts; a final Q4 estimate arrives April 9 as some trackers point to a tentative Q1 rebound.