Overview
- The British Chambers of Commerce warned on Tuesday that overall unemployment could climb by more than 400,000 to roughly two million by the end of Labour’s first term, taking the jobless rate to about 5.5 percent.
- The BCC projects youth unemployment for 16–24 year olds will approach 17.8–17.9 percent, adding roughly 167,000 young people to the ranks of the unemployed and worsening an already high NEET population.
- Businesses surveyed by the BCC say rising employer costs, including higher National Insurance contributions and steeper minimum wages for younger workers, plus faster adoption of AI, are reducing entry‑level hiring.
- The lobby group downgraded growth forecasts to around 0.9 percent for 2026 and expects inflation to rise toward roughly 3.8 percent by year‑end, which it says could keep Bank Rate around 3.75 percent for longer.
- The forecast has intensified calls from business groups and opposition politicians for targeted policy changes to protect youth jobs and training and has heightened concern among analysts about long‑term damage to the skills pipeline.