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BBH Flags Guidewire as Q4 Detractor Despite Strong Growth and Raised Outlook

The firm points to AI‑driven skepticism toward software as the reason shares lagged fundamentals.

Overview

  • BBH’s Mid Cap ETF fell 3.9% in Q4 2025 versus a 0.2% gain for the Russell Midcap Index, with Guidewire down 12.6% and finishing the quarter at a 5.5% fund weight.
  • BBH said software stocks traded lower on fears that AI could lower barriers to entry, yet it views Guidewire’s deep P&C insurance domain expertise as a long‑term AI beneficiary.
  • Guidewire reported accelerating ARR growth of 21% in constant currency and 36% subscription revenue growth with 82% incremental margins, raised full‑year guidance, and launched PricingCenter and UnderwritingCenter.
  • The company posted $359 million in revenue for Q2 fiscal 2026, a 24% year‑over‑year increase.
  • Guidewire closed at $158.93 on March 10, up 21.87% over one month and down 9.90% over 12 months, with a market cap near $13.45 billion as reported hedge‑fund holders slipped to 69 from 72.