Overview
- EPFL physicist Claudio Grimaldi posted a new arXiv study modeling present-day detectability given undetected technosignature contacts since 1960.
- High odds of a nearby detection would require implausibly many past contacts, in some cases exceeding the number of potentially habitable planets within a few hundred to a few thousand light-years.
- Detection prospects improve mainly for long-lived emissions spanning several thousand light-years, yet only a few detectable signals are expected across the Galaxy at any time.
- The conclusions apply to both omnidirectional signatures and tightly targeted beacons, with short-lived signals further reducing detectability.
- The paper recommends prioritizing deeper, wider Milky Way surveys over narrow, local searches, noting that optimistic alternatives would demand unlikely local clustering or a recent sudden rise in emitters.