Overview
- A disorganized low that formed in the Bay of Campeche moved over eastern Mexico this weekend and remains only marginally favorable for tropical cyclone formation according to the National Hurricane Center.
- The NHC currently assigns a low chance of development, roughly 10–20 percent, through the next seven days while stressing that development is unlikely before the system moves inland.
- Models show a credible scenario for the low to re-emerge into the northwestern Gulf by Tuesday–Wednesday and interact with a frontal boundary, which could focus heavy rain over parts of Southeast Texas and the northern Gulf Coast.
- Forecast guidance differs on exact placement and totals with some runs projecting localized totals around 5 inches and isolated pockets up to 8–9 inches, and the Weather Prediction Center has flagged portions of Southeast Texas with a moderate flood risk.
- Immediate hazards are hydrologic and marine: expect gusty southeast winds, rough seas and scattered heavy showers this weekend, with the primary public impact next week likely being heavy rain, flash flooding and localized coastal flooding rather than a strong tropical storm.