Overview
- The Barclays Business Prosperity Index reports 80% of UK businesses say the Iran/Middle East war has harmed them, and about 20% have paused or frozen investment plans.
- Firms cite specific cost channels: 64% point to higher energy and fuel bills, 34% to rising shipping and logistics costs, and roughly one third report supply‑chain disruption.
- Surveyed senior decision‑makers told Barclays that 37% expect to pass some of these cost increases on to customers through higher prices.
- Barclays transaction data for Q1 2026 show small companies cut borrowing by 13.1% and raised savings by 1.5% while larger firms increased longer‑term borrowing by 6.9% and reduced savings by 5.2%.
- Businesses are responding with tech investment: 68% plan higher cybersecurity spending and 61% report using agentic AI, and Barclays’ UK corporate bank chief Matt Hammerstein urged a cabinet‑level AI role to coordinate strategy.