Overview
- February’s central bank poll shows analysts raising Mexico’s 2026 GDP forecast to roughly 1.46%–1.50%, the highest in months.
- Year‑end 2026 inflation is now projected around 3.98%–4.00%, with core inflation remaining above 4%, signaling a slower return to Banxico’s 3% target.
- Security concerns top the list of growth constraints cited by respondents, and 48% say it is a bad time to invest, while only 3% see a good time.
- Most expect further monetary easing this year, with year‑end policy rate projections clustered between about 6.50% and 6.89%.
- Consensus points to a stronger peso near 18.10–18.50 per dollar at end‑2026, even as the IMEF manufacturing index records 23 straight months in contraction.