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Bank of Russia Warns Against Sharp Rate Cuts as Inflation Expectations Stay Unanchored

Deputy governor Alexei Zabotkin says sustainable disinflation depends on supply outpacing demand.

Overview

  • Zabotkin said a rapid reduction of the key rate would spur prices by boosting credit and demand beyond current production capacity.
  • He argued that persistent high inflation undermines business planning more than temporarily elevated borrowing costs.
  • The central bank says household inflation expectations remain unanchored after a brief low-inflation spell in 2016–2020, with perceived price growth exceeding official readings.
  • Annual inflation eased to 5.6% in 2025 nationwide, with lower rates in St. Petersburg at 4.8% and in Chechnya at 4.46%.
  • Guidance points to inflation at 4–5% in 2026 and near 4% thereafter, with the average key rate projected at 13–15% in 2026 and 7.5–8.5% in 2027–2028.