Overview
- The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% next week, with investors watching the wording of its guidance and the breakdown of votes.
- The Monetary Policy Report due with the decision will map outcomes for an Iran conflict escalation or de‑escalation to show how inflation could move above or below the baseline forecast.
- UK inflation rose to 3.3% in March after fuel costs jumped, reflecting oil near $100 a barrel and higher petrol and diesel prices at the pump.
- Analysts see a possible minority pushing for a hike, notably Huw Pill and Catherine Mann, while Governor Andrew Bailey has urged patience on further increases.
- Traders still assign some chance of a small rise in early summer, and officials are keen to avoid a repeat of last month’s sharp market swings after tougher wording in the minutes.