Overview
- The Bank of Canada left its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10, 2026, keeping the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.
- The bank projects modest growth of roughly 1–1.2% for 2026 and expects inflation to hover near its 2% target once volatile items settle.
- Governor Tiff Macklem called the outlook 'fluid' and said Canada is not clearly in a recession while warning any downturn would likely be mild.
- The central bank flagged external risks from the Middle East energy disruptions and U.S. trade actions as material uncertainties that could push inflation or growth off course.
- Markets moved to safer government bonds after the announcement and economists polled expect no further rate changes through 2026 with attention now on the July 15 Monetary Policy Report for fresh guidance.