Overview
- Bank of America told clients to buy stocks in May and plan to sell in July or August this year.
- The call rests on a 98-year review showing May through October delivers the S&P 500’s lowest six-month average return at about 2.4%.
- The weak stretch clusters later in the period, with August through October averaging a 0.2% drop for the S&P 500.
- Presidential-cycle trends inform the view, with year two positive about 60% of the time and the Nasdaq 100 posting May gains roughly 68% of the time with average increases above 2%.
- Recent market gains tied to hopes for an Iran ceasefire and renewed AI enthusiasm set the backdrop, though RBC research highlights September as the softest month with an average 1.2% decline.