Overview
- The Landsort-Norra gauge in Sweden logged a daily mean more than 67 centimeters below the long-term average on February 5, the lowest since records began in 1886.
- An unusually prolonged easterly wind pattern since early January has driven vast volumes of water out through the Danish–German–Swedish straits toward the North Sea.
- IOW calculations indicate the Baltic currently holds about 275 cubic kilometers less water than the long-term average, creating conditions strongly favoring an inflow.
- Oceanographers note that even a 20-centimeter deficit supports major saltwater intrusions, and they estimate an 80–90% probability under the present setup.
- A strong winter inflow could bring cold, oxygen-rich, salty water to deep basins suffering chronic hypoxia, and the IOW is preparing extensive measurements with its vessel Elisabeth Mann Borgese, citing the last comparable major event in March 1980.