Overview
- Bain’s June 25 update narrows its outlook to a base case of 2–4% growth for personal luxury goods and 0–2% growth for total luxury spending with a roughly 70% probability for that scenario.
- The near-term recovery is being driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. spending and a tentative China bounce led by ready-to-wear products while the Middle East and parts of Europe remain weak.
- The industry has lost about 70 million consumers since 2022 and that attrition, combined with stabilized but elevated prices, is forcing brands to rebuild broader customer loyalty.
- Digital and circular shifts are reshaping buying patterns, with roughly half of luxury shoppers using AI tools for discovery or comparison and about half consulting resale channels before buying new items.
- Category and business effects are uneven: jewelry, apparel, and experiences are outperforming while leather goods and footwear lag, which is putting pressure on margins and pushing brands to use pricing, personalization, AI and resale strategies to win customers back.