Overview
- The CDU and the Greens head into election day effectively tied at about 28% each, with the AfD projected at 18–20% for its strongest showing in the region.
- National polling places the AfD roughly level with the CDU at around 25%, sharpening the stakes for a year packed with state elections.
- Chancellor Friedrich Merz joined a late campaign rally to back CDU contender Manuel Hagel and defended efforts to reduce illegal migration.
- Baden‑Württemberg’s car industry woes over energy costs, technology gaps and Chinese competition have defined the campaign, with Merz pressing Brussels to drop the 2035 all‑electric goal and Cem Özdemir calling for flexibility.
- Green frontrunner Cem Özdemir, a high‑profile centrist who would follow Winfried Kretschmann if he wins, faces Hagel, whose momentum slipped after a late‑February rebroadcast of inappropriate 2018 remarks.