Overview
- Voters in Baden-Württemberg go to the polls on Sunday in the first of several state elections this year that will gauge the national mood.
- Polling shows the CDU’s Manuel Hagel and the Greens’ Cem Ozdemir tied at about 28 percent, with expectations pointing to a continuation of their coalition.
- The AfD is polling near 19–20 percent after focusing its campaign on factory towns and auto workers, including appearances by Alice Weidel outside a major Mercedes-Benz plant.
- Recent industry cuts have sharpened economic concerns, with Bosch planning 20,000 job reductions by 2030, Mercedes-Benz offering severance to about 40,000 staff, and a 2025 study projecting around 100,000 car-sector jobs to vanish by 2030.
- Chancellor Friedrich Merz has ruled out cooperating with the AfD, as surveys put the SPD in single digits, the Left Party flirting with entry to the state parliament, and the FDP at risk of falling below the 5 percent threshold.