Overview
- The report presented in Vigo projects shoreline retreat of up to 12 meters by mid‑century, heightening exposure across the coastal strip that concentrates key assets.
- Flood modeling estimates a 1‑in‑1,000‑year event could affect about 42,000 residents and a 1% annual‑chance event about 30,000, with port zones potentially under 3 meters of water and the Stellantis plant facing up to 1.3 meters unless dikes are maintained.
- Average temperatures are forecast to rise roughly 2.3–3.6°C by 2050, adding around 50 hot days and 64 tropical nights each year, lengthening heatwaves and allowing extremes near 44°C in some years.
- Water security risks increase as Vigo relies on the Eiras reservoir for about 98% of supply, with water‑stress indicators rising from 10.8% to over 21% by 2050, while marine heatwaves and contamination have coincided with a 42% drop in shellfish sales and threats to bivalves, including from the blue crab.
- AXA links these hazards to macroeconomic losses, warning Galicia’s GDP per capita could fall by up to 9% by 2050, as business leaders call for anticipatory measures and AXA urges coordinated planning, dike vigilance and private‑sector action.