Overview
- IRS data show the average refund is $3,521 so far, up about $350 from last year, with 88.4 million returns filed out of roughly 164 million expected.
- Many filers paid in more during 2025 because the IRS left paycheck withholding tables unchanged after new tax cuts.
- New write-offs for tips, overtime, some auto-loan interest, and an extra senior deduction are widespread, with Treasury saying nearly half of returns claim at least one and about 25% claim the overtime break.
- The White House had suggested average refunds could rise by about $1,000, though the season-to-date increase is smaller than that estimate.
- Middle-income households, parents, and tipped or overtime workers are seeing the biggest bumps, though tax pros warn larger refunds can simply reflect overpayment rather than a true gain.