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Average Tax Refund Jumps 14% to $2,476 as Early IRS Data Roll In

Expanded tax breaks alongside unchanged withholding are pushing payouts higher.

Tax filers saw $172.26 billion in federal income tax refunds head their way through March 24. While that's a great deal of money, the total dollar amount is down $16.4 billion or down 8.7% from a year ago. Tax refunds
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Overview

  • As of Feb. 13, the IRS reports an average refund of $2,476, up 14.2% from a year ago, with about $32 billion paid out even as returns received are down 2.6%.
  • Early-season figures exclude millions of refunds tied to the Earned Income Tax Credit and Additional Child Tax Credit because of statutory holds, with many deposits expected in early March for error-free returns.
  • Analysts point to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s larger credits and new deductions, combined with unchanged withholding tables in 2025, as key drivers of bigger refunds.
  • Treasury Secretary and acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent said refunds were up 22%, a figure that differs from the IRS release, and President Trump said refunds are “substantially greater than ever before.”
  • The IRS cautions that staffing shortages and a backlog, including roughly 590,000 amended returns, could slow timing; e-file with direct deposit typically pays within about 21 days, paper filings can take up to 42 days, and the 'Where’s My Refund?' tool updates daily.